Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
