From Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”